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I'm going to offer up a little something different this week.  Feel free to play along.  And as always, these are just my picks.  If you like'm, take'em, if not, that's cool too.

I am going to run a 6 game, 7pt teaser, laying $100 which pays out $500.  My last pick is the one I feel pretty confident about.  Overall this year, some posted on this site and some not, I am 6-1 on my locks.

Notre Dame +7 vs. Pitt.
Put the 7 on ND and take it to 14
Notre Dame has been in every single game they have played and their three losses have all come on last second plays.  Their biggest margin of defeat was 7 to USC.  Last week, they turned the ball over three times in the red-zone, one on the 1 yard line, and they also missed two field goals.  If they don’t self destruct they easily beat Navy and I think the line this game is more like 2 than 7.  I like ND to cover 14 points against a Pitt team that has played close games against average teams like Rutgers and UConn.  I have watched this Pitt team multiple times and aside from their freshman running-back, who is pretty solid, I think this team is a bit overrated.  Notre Dame will be the best offense they have played to date and with Casey Clausen throwing to Tate and Flyod, no matter how many points Pitt can score, I think that offense can match.  ND may not pull out the victory, but I am betting on the trend of that they have shown in every single game this year, keep it close until the last seconds of the game.

OSU -16.5 vs. Iowa
Put the 7 on OSU and take it to 9 ½
I know, I know, TP sucks.  I realize this.  But the Sweater finally got his head out of his ass last week and finally called plays that suit the kid, which is safe percentage passes to their playmakers like Posey.  However, even if Pryor regresses again, it won't make a difference in this game.  Iowa's back-up QB is in for a world of hurt and will be like a deer in head lights after the second snap.  OSU’s defense has been playing great all year and they will feast on this new kid.  To make matters worse, Iowa doesn't have a run game, down to their 3rd string running back.  With the Big Ten championship on the line and the a Rose Bowl birth in sight, I think a pretty easy win maybe in store for the Yuckeyes.  I don’t like the 16.5 but I sure do like them by 10 or a couple scores.  I am counting on a couple turnovers and maybe even a special teams score by Ray Small.

Georgia Tech -12.5 vs. Duke
Take Tech and bring it down to 5 ½
I have always loved betting on teams that run the triple option.  I have won some good money on both Tech and Navy this year.  Although Tech played a below average Wake Forest team close last week in an overtime win, that may serve as a little wakeup to not overlook anybody on their schedule.  Duke on the other hand, although much better than years past, hasn’t played top opponents well, with losses to both  Va. Tech and North Carolina.  I usually stay away from betting against dogs playing at home, but Tech has a 4-0 record on the road this year.  I like Nesbitt  and Dwyer run for more than a 6 point victory.

 
Arkansas -13.5 vs. Troy
Take the 7 on Arkansas, take it down to 6 ½
I have taken Arkansas a lot this year and out of their last 7 games, they have covered for me 6 times.  I have taken them as favorites and underdogs.  Ryan Mallett and that offense can flat out score some points.  Typically I am a little wary of games like this, a non-conference opponent late in the season, however Arkansas isn't coming off a huge win against a big rival and they don't have a real big game after this one, so I see no real reason for them to overlook Troy.  They are playing at home, where they have only lost one game in a shoot out vs. Georgia.  Troy is a team who got spanked 56-7 by Florida, a team Arkansas dam near beat.  Even though Troy has won seven straight games, those games have been against teams like Middle Tenn St, Western Kentucky and North Texas.  If Troy doesn't play a cake schedule, this spread may be in the 20's.  I like Arkansas to play this game like and SEC game and come out with a pretty big win.  They just put up 33 points on a very talented South Carolina defense at home and I see no reason they can't do that against a team from the Sun Belt Conference. 

New England +3 vs. Indy
Put the 7 on NE and take it to 10
I don't know who will win but I would be shocked if NE gets beat by more than 10 points.  I am not a huge stats guy, but over the past three years, when Tom Brady is the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots, they have lost 1 game by more than 10 points.  Indy is hurting defensively, with both Marlin Jackson and Bob Sanders out.  NE can and will score with Indy, who hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire offensively, with San Francisco and Houston both leading in the fourth quarter the last two games.  I always tell Hammer and Sam that I never bet against Peyton Manning or Tom Brady because they can change the game in a blink of an eye.  With both teams playing each other though, all bets are off on that statement.  I am going with my gut on this, and 10 points is just too much to pass on.  If any team in the NFL is not intimidated by playing in Indianapolis vs. Peyton Manning it’s Tom Brady, Bill Bel-a-cheat and the New England Patriots.

 Pittsburg -7 vs. Cincinnati
Put the 7 on the Steelers and take it down to a pick’em
The Steelers may have played the best defensive football I have seen all year with their second half performance in Denver last week.  Right now, defensively I don’t know if there is anybody better in the NFL.  Their offense is producing big chunks of yards, both through the air and the ground.  Mendenhall looks great, Big Ben looks great and their receivers; Holmes, Ward and the speed killer Wallace are doing a great job with yac.  I know the Bengals are playing good football behind a new running game with C. Benson, but I don’t see them rolling into steel town to pull this one out.  The Bengals may have pulled out some late game heroics in their first meeting, but Troy Polamalu was not playing in that game, which makes a huge difference (just ask Denver).  I think the Steelers payback their rival and win this game. 

LOCK:
Miami -10 vs. Tampa Bay
Miami has played every team on their schedule extremely tough this year, including  very good teams like Indy, New England and New Orleans.  I really like betting on teams that are consistent and the Miami is exactly that.  They don’t overlook their opponents, are stingy as hell defensively and nobody has been able to stop their running game.  The rookie Josh Freeman played last week for Tampa and got a pass because nobody had film on him.  Coach Tony Sparano may be one of the most underrated coaches in the league and will pressure the new kid relentlessly.  He will study that film and understand what the kids strengths and weaknesses are.  Miami pounds everybody in the league with their run, and have plowed over teams like the Jets, who own the best defense in the league statistically.  Tampa is at the bottom of the league in all areas across the board both offensively and defensively.  Tampa Bay will get very tired, very fast trying to stop that run game Miami will throw at them.  Plus, don’t be surprised if Tedd Ginn doesn’t play a big part in special teams.  I would be very surprised if Miami doesn't win this game by 14 or more.
 


Comments

Sam Rothstein Jr.

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:53:09

I would like to submit my endorsement of these picks, and offer two more for the consideration of the loyal Bo Hogan readers. Normally, being a bookie, I would prefer for you to lose every bet you make causing a panic driven downward spiral of losses... but bohogan brings out the best in all of us.

Atlanta is giving Carolina 2 pts, and Baltimore is giving the mistake by the Lake (Cleveland) 11pts. Tease the favorites by 6pts in both for 9:10 odds and put everything you have on it. Atlanta +4 and baltimore -5... a stone cold lock.

 



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